lunes, 26 de junio de 2017

THE NEW BEARS' PLAN

I'm not going to lie, I also thought the Chicago Bears had gone crazy in their first round last draft. Go up a place and pay so much for Trubisky? Why? However, more than a month later, and analyzing what they've done in the off-season, there are things that are shaping in my head as I'll try to explain. Maybe I've gone as crazy as them, but I'm convinced they have a plan. A plan that has Mitchell Trubisky as the trigger man.

When Adam Gase packed up and went to Miami's sunny beaches, the Bears were left orphaned on the offensive end and chose to give power to their quarterback coach in 2015, Dowell Loggains. The Bears' offense last year did not draw too much attention or, at least, did not do so great except for some young guys such as Cameron Meredith, Jordan Howard or Cody Whitehair. The Bears’ plan, and Loggains’, begins with one of these three players. But let's start at the beginning.

TITANS 2012

Loggains is a very young coach, though with experience in this position within the NFL. In 2012, and also after being the QBs coach, he was hired as the Tennesse Titans' offensive coordinator, replacing Chris Palmer, whose 2011 team was one of the worst offenses in the entire league. Loggains was only a year in the position, but he made very clear the philosophy he likes to implement in his teams. Of those Titans I would like to emphasize two situations: the full house formation in the backfield and the game of short passes to medium areas.


It is strange to see, today, as many situations with full backfield as could be seen in those Titans. They, filling the backfield, could play all kinds of runs, from zone to power run. These full house formations allowed the fullback, and the tight end located in the backfield, to reach the second level with some ease to block the inside linebackers. They had several variations, but it was common to use one for the lead block and another to seal the cutback defender, or to play kick-out, removing pressure to the offensive line, which could afford to focus on the defensive line and do double teams to open their gaps. In the video above we see how the two tight ends come from the backfield, one of them blocking the cutback defender and the other going to the playside run support. The running back, in this case, hit the bend (cutback) to cross the LOS. Also, with three men in the backfield, they could generate more blocks in pass protection or use it as a threat in the passing game. Loggains' favorite grouping personnel are Ace (12 personnel), Tank (22 personnel), Pony (21 personnel) and even Heavy (13 personnel).

The Loggains’ Titans had Craig Stevens play like a TE / FB hybrid they used a lot in the blocks for the run game and a very young Jared Cook playing the middle zones or as a threat in the red zone. Cook was an important factor in winning short first downs through the passing game or taking advantage of the attention generated by the run game to use play-action. In addition, they had another tight end, Taylor Thompson, to use as a blocker in their different heavy formations. The quarterback’s reads were not complicated as they relied on reading specific defenders to choose whether to look for one receiver or another, no lengthy progressions. Simple play for him. They just threw it deep when the scoreboard forced them to risk, since they were trying to take care of the ball and to minimize mistakes. In the following video, we can see one of these situations, and once again with a two tight end's formation. That team had a very defined gameplay, but between the lack of talent and injuries, did not have much success. They finished 23rd in points scored and 26th in yards gained on offense.


At the end of the 2012 season, Loggains left the franchise and, in 2014, he signed as the quarterback coach for the Cleveland Browns. He paired there with one of the most privileged minds in the current world of offensive football: Kyle Shanahan. The influence of the current head coach of the 49ers on Loggains was seen when he took command of the Bears offense in 2016 as offensive coordinator.

BEARS 2016

Dowell Loggains demonstrated a wealth of resources in a rather extensive running game. The team went from playing with I-Formation (mostly in off-set) to playing from shotgun or in pistol formation. Many stretchs / outside zones, split zones or toss plays were seen. And the heavy-run offense with the full house formation of 2012 changed to a heavy-run offense with the tight ends in-line or with situations similar to the old flexbone.

The Bears found in Jordan Howard a running back that fits perfectly the game that Loggains wants to execute. He is an excellent runner playing in zone schemes. He has a quick feet for the cutbacks, good vision and enough patience to see the open gap. In addition, he has no problem running between the tackles in power run and lowering the center of gravity to hold and break tackles. Howard can play very physically when the situation requires it. If you couple Howard with Jeremy Langford, Kadeem Carey and the rookie Tarik Cohen (keep and eye on this fast player in trick plays), you have a multidimensional crop. Loggains will do what he likes in an offense: run, run and run. His philosophy is to protect the ball as much as possible with his run-heavy offense. Burning the clock will be the priority goal for the Bears in 2017. In the following video we can see an example of the virtues of Howard:


In addition, the Bears also have a fullback, Fredie Stevenson (selected in the last draft) and three tight ends to make the final roster (Zach Miller, Dion Sims and his second round of this year's Adam Shaheen). I don’t know about you, but I see a clear inclination, in this roster, to what I have told you about those 2012’s Titans.

The arrival of Sims and the election of Shaheen lead me to this point. To keep the passing game under control, Loggains likes to involve the tight ends. In addition, Kevin White is expected to overcome his physical problems to start contributing regularly. With Miller, Shaheen, Sims and White, the quarterback will have possession receivers at almost any snap, allowing him to continue to have 12 or 22 personnel (two RBs and two TEs), which is the backbone for a run-heavy offense. Mixing routes on two levels like the slant-flat concept, Hi-Lo crossers, sucker route, drive, snag, spacing or smash, and look for the comebacks on the outside, will be the main weapons used by Loggains to move the chains in the passing game.


If you noticed the 2012 Titans' videos, the quarterback would start the snap under center. With Loggains in command, and within his offensive scheme, the quarterback will be placed in that spot many times throughout a game. If we go back in time (to 2013) and see Mike Glennon's season as Tampa Bay Buccaneers' quarterback, we can see how these situations are not going to be foreign to him. In that season, it was customary to see him start under center to hand the ball off or to use play action, so the new Chicago Bears’ quarterback will be familiar in these pro formations. They have a quarterback who knows how to handle a system like that and players valid enough to fit what your coordinator is going to ask them, so there’s a plan. The Bears have come up with a plan since the end of last season. Doubts come when we try to put the Mitchell Trubisky we saw in college in this whole system so different from the one he played at North Carolina, right?

HOW TRUBISKY FITS IN THIS PLAN

"But Trubisky has never played in such a system. He has never gone under center nor played that type of dropbacks! ", You will tell me that. Totally true, friends, but there’s a solution. Or, at least, I think that may be.

As I said before, the Bears' plan for this year is to prevent the quarterback from being the lead player. The majority of the offense is going to be based on the ground game and the spaces that can be created from this. Their offensive line is much better than you might think at first. The interior of that unit, in fact, is excellent. Sitton, Whitehair and Long are a very solid group and I would not be surprised to see their performance grow even more if injuries respect them.

So they have an offensive line that will play well and a running game capable of carrying the weight of the team. With this, the Bears can start thinking about giving snaps to their new quarterback. If the problem is for someone who has never do that to play under center, I am going to redirect you to what we saw last year with Dak Prescott.

In Dallas they were able to implement RPO situations so their rookie quarterback had a slightly less traumatic transition into the NFL. They mixed situations coming out under the center and situations playing from shotgun in order for his rookie quarterback to feel more comfortable, giving the full offensive’s load to his offensive line and Zeke Elliott, the running back. With this, Prescott was able to keep mistakes at a minimum, gaining confidence in his game to reached a level which surprised us all.

With Trubisky, the Bears have to do something very similar. He has very good accuracy in throws between the hashmarks in the RPOs, and it is something that should be exploded in the offense. Also, the new Chicago’s quarterback has the virtue to play well the sprint-action, so the roll-outs would be a good choice within those pro-style formations. These roll-outs are a chance to get him out from under center to look for the flood concept or the swap boot.

To use the play action, obviously, he has to learn how to make the dropback almost from scratch, but the news coming to us from the Windy City are promising. Moreover, before and after the Combine, there was already a visible progression in his footwork. Even so, last year, after Jay Cutler's injury, we saw Matt Barkley playing from shotgun many times, something Trubisky dominates best and demonstrates Loggains's adaptability for any contingency that comes his way.


If you want to remain a run-heavy offense without having to start under the center, the offensive coordinator has different ways to do it. They could play from shotgun with 12 personnel (with tight ends in-line or in wing spots) or call the pistol formation (including diamond formation to fill the backfield), turning the play-action into a mesh point between the running back and Trubisky, with easy reads in the RPOs and with the possibility that Trubisky would use his legs to gain rushing yards, a threat that Glennon would not have. Obviously, Trubisky has to improve his footwork, his recognition of the pre / post-snap defenses and his decision making depending on what is presented to him in the field, as well as creating chemistry with his new crew. What is clear is that they wanted to surround him as best as possible so the offense’s load doesn’t fall on him. Anything more than 25/30 passes per game for any of these quarterbacks will be a problem for the Bears.


The summary of all this is that the Bears offseason may not be as crazy as it seemed at first. Or so I see it. They have drawn a road map since the end of last season and their goal has been to form a very solid offense that stays on the field as long as possible. They will not be in a hurry, but they have implied that Trubisky is the future man for this franchise, so they are trying to put him in the best possible position.

We will see a lot of run game in these new Bears, creating heavy formations to look for mismatches with their tight ends and to try to take advantage of the windows opened by opponents with fast men such as Victor Cruz, Cameron Meredith, Markus Wheaton or Deonte Thompson.

They remain, in my opinion, the weakest team in the NFC North, but I have the feeling that there are going to be positive signs coming throughout the season. I firmly believe in a plan that few are feel it coming, and that has a name above all: Mitchell Trubisky.